Canadian exports took a breather in Q2 after a busy Q1, when U.S. buyers rushed to stock up ahead of potential tariff hikes. But here’s the reality that isn’t making the headlines: 92% of Canadian goods still entered the U.S. duty-free in June—that’s higher than 91% in May and 89% in April.

 

This is thanks to the USMCA/CUSMA trade agreement, which is doing exactly what it was designed to do: protect the bulk of our cross-border trade from unnecessary tariffs.

 

 

Yes, there are certain industries under pressure—steel, aluminum, and auto parts with non-U.S. content are costing American buyers more. But when you step back, Canada’s position is exceptionally strong:

•Average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian imports: 2.4%

•Average U.S. tariff rate on all imports: 8.9%

•August increase to 35% on non-USMCA goods will only affect about 6% of exports

 

In other words, most of what we send south is still untouched by tariffs.

 

If the current rules hold, Canada will keep the lowest tariff rate of any major U.S. trade partner. That’s a competitive advantage few others enjoy. We’re not just maintaining our share of the U.S. market—we’re in a position to grow it while others face steeper costs.

 

The broader concern is the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policy. If hikes continue and their economy slows, it could spill over into Canada. But today’s reality is clear: the vast majority of our exports are crossing the border without added costs—and that’s a win worth noting.

 

While the word “tariff” makes for a dramatic headline, the numbers tell a calmer story—Canada is still winning on the trade front.

 

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